Amagambo atandukanye yavugiwe mu nama rusange ya 80 y’Umuryango w’Abibumbye (ONU), agaragaza ko hakiri icyuho hagati y’icyo Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zivuga ko zagezeho mu gukemura intambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (RDC), n’ukuri kw’ibibera muri icyo gihugu, aho abaturage bagikomeje guhura n’ingaruka z’umutekano muke.
Perezida wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Donald Trump, yongeye kugaragaza intambara yo muri RDC mu makimbirane ubuyobozi bwe buvuga ko bwagize uruhare mu guhagarika.
Icyakora, Minisitiri w’Intebe wa RDC, Judith Suminwa, yagaragaje ko nubwo habayeho gusinyana Amasezerano ya Washington n’ubwumvikane bwagezweho i Doha, amahoro akiri isezerano ku baturage benshi ba Congo.
Ku rundi ruhande, Massad Boulos, umujyanama wa Perezida Trump ku bibazo bya Afurika, yasobanuye ko Amasezerano ya Washington atari iherezo ry’inzira y’amahoro, ahubwo ari intangiriro yayo, ashimangira ko kuyashyira mu bikorwa bizasaba igihe.
Aya magambo atatu agaragaza ikibazo gikomeye mu rwego rwa dipolomasi: Ese gusinya amasezerano birahagije kugira ngo intambara ifatwe nk’iyarangiye, cyangwa intsinzi nyakuri ipimirwa ku mahoro n’umutekano abaturage babona aho batuye?
Amasezerano ya Washington: Intambwe ya dipolomasi itaragera ku musaruro wa nyuma
Amasezerano ya Washington, agamije gukemura amakimbirane hagati ya RDC n’u Rwanda, yari intambwe ikomeye mu gushaka igisubizo cya politiki n’icy’umutekano ku bibazo bimaze igihe bihungabanya akarere k’Ibiyaga Bigari.
Aya masezerano agaragaza uruhare rwa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika mu guhuza impande zifitanye amakimbirane, hagamijwe kugabanya umwuka mubi, gukemura ibibazo by’umutekano no gushyiraho urufatiro rw’imikoranire mishya hagati y’ibihugu byombi.
Icyakora, mu bijyanye no gukemura amakimbirane, hari itandukaniro rikomeye hagati yo kumvikana ku mpapuro no gushyira mu bikorwa ibyo impande zemeranyijeho.
Amasezerano ashobora gushyiraho inshingano, ariko kuyubahiriza bisaba ubushake bwa politiki, ubushobozi bwo kugenzura ibikorwa n’uburyo bwo gukemura ibibazo bishobora kuvuka mu gihe cyo kuyashyira mu bikorwa.
Ni muri urwo rwego amagambo ya Massad Boulos afite igisobanuro gikomeye. Kuba yaravuze ko Amasezerano ya Washington ari intangiriro, aho kuba umusozo w’inzira y’amahoro, bigaragaza ko na Washington ubwayo izi ko gusinya ayo masezerano bidahita bikemura ibibazo byose byatumye amakimbirane avuka.
Mu isesengura rya dipolomasi, ibi bishobora gusobanurwa nk’inzira y’amahoro isaba ibyiciro bitandukanye: kugabanya imirwano, kubaka icyizere, gushyira mu bikorwa inshingano z’impande bireba no gukemura impamvu z’ingenzi zituma umutekano ukomeza guhungabana.
Ku ruhande rwa RDC, amagambo ya Judith Suminwa agaragaza ko Leta ya Kinshasa idashaka ko umusaruro w’amasezerano upimirwa gusa ku kuba yarasinywe cyangwa ku ruhare rw’abahuza mpuzamahanga, ahubwo ko ugomba no kugaragarira mu buzima bwa buri munsi bw’abaturage.
Mu burasirazuba bwa Congo, ikibazo cy’umutekano gifite ingaruka ku mibereho y’abaturage, ubukungu, ubusugire bw’igihugu n’ubushobozi bwa Leta bwo kugenzura ubutaka bwayo.
Abaturage bakomeje kwimurwa n’intambara, ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi bikadindira, mu gihe ibikorwa by’ubutabazi bikomeza guhura n’imbogamizi.
Ibi bisobanura impamvu Kinshasa ishimangira ko amasezerano agomba gutanga umusaruro ugaragara, cyane cyane mu bijyanye no guhagarika imirwano, kurinda abasivili no kugarura umutekano mu duce twibasiwe n’intambara.
Mu rwego rw’imishyikirano, iyi ni ingingo ijyanye n’icyo twakwita gushyira mu bikorwa amasezerano, ni ukuvuga icyuho kiri hagati y’ibyo impande zumvikanyeho n’ibikorwa bifatika bigomba kubikurikira.
Iyo icyo cyuho gikomeje kuba kinini, abaturage bashobora gutakaza icyizere mu masezerano, ndetse n’impande zayasinye zikongera kurebana ay’ingwe.
Amerika n’imbogamizi zo guhindura ubuhuza umusaruro urambye
Kuri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, kugira uruhare mu masezerano ya Washington ni uburyo bwo gukoresha imbaraga za dipolomasi mu gukemura amakimbirane ashobora guhungabanya umutekano w’akarere k’Ibiyaga Bigari.
Gusa, uruhare rw’umuhuza ntirugarukira ku guhuza impande ngo zishyire umukono ku masezerano. Harimo no gukurikirana ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’ibyemeranyijweho, gufasha mu gukemura impaka zivuka no gukomeza ibiganiro igihe habayeho kutumvikana.
Ibi kandi bifitanye isano n’inyungu z’ubukungu n’iza geopolitiki z’ibihugu bikomeye muri Afurika. Akarere k’Ibiyaga Bigari gafite umutungo kamere, amasoko y’ubucuruzi n’aho gaherereye hafite akamaro mu mikoranire y’ibihugu byo muri Afurika yo hagati n’iy’ibindi bice by’isi.
Nubwo bimeze bityo, umusaruro wa dipolomasi y’Amerika ntushobora gupimirwa gusa ku kuba impande zarasinye amasezerano, ahubwo unashingira ku bushobozi bwazo bwo kuyubahiriza no kugera ku mutekano urambye.
Doha na Washington: Inzira ebyiri zigomba kuzuzanya
Ikindi kintu gikomeye muri iyi dosiye ni uko inzira ya Washington itandukanye n’iya Doha, nubwo zombi zigamije gufasha mu gukemura amakimbirane yo muri RDC.
Mu gihe Washington yibanda ku bibazo bireba umubano w’u Rwanda na RDC, harimo n’ibibazo by’umutekano n’ubusugire bw’ibihugu, Doha yo yagize uruhare mu biganiro hagati ya Leta ya RDC n’umutwe wa AFC/M23.
Ibi bigaragaza ko ikibazo cya Congo kidashobora gukemurwa n’amasezerano hagati y’ibihugu byombi gusa, kuko gifite n’uruhande rw’imitwe yitwaje intwaro, ibibazo by’imiyoborere, umutekano w’imbere mu gihugu n’inyungu z’ibihugu byo mu karere.
Iyo inzira zombi zidahujwe neza, hashobora kubaho icyuho mu ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’amasezerano. Urugero, amasezerano ashobora gukemura ikibazo cy’umubano hagati y’ibihugu, ariko ntahite akemura ikibazo cy’umutwe witwaje intwaro ukomeje kugenzura ibice bimwe by’ubutaka.
Ni yo mpamvu guhuza ibiganiro bya Washington na Doha, gushyiraho uburyo bwo kugenzura ibyemeranyijweho no gukomeza ibiganiro hagati y’impande zose bireba bishobora kugira uruhare mu kubaka amahoro arambye.
Ikibazo cy’icyizere n’icyo twakwita umutekano uteza urujijo
Imwe mu mbogamizi zikomeye mu gukemura amakimbirane yo mu karere k’Ibiyaga Bigari ni ukutizerana hagati y’ibihugu n’impande zifite uruhare muri ayo makimbirane.
Mu rwego rwa geopolitiki, umutekano uteza urujijo ni igihe igihugu gifata ingamba zo kwirinda cyangwa kongera umutekano wacyo, ariko ibindi bihugu bikazibona nk’iterabwoba, na byo bigafata izindi ngamba zo kwirwanaho. Ibyo bishobora gutuma umwuka mubi ukomeza kwiyongera, nubwo buri ruhande rwaba ruvuga ko rugamije kwirinda.
Mu bibazo bya RDC n’u Rwanda, impande zombi zagiye zigaragaza impungenge zishingiye ku mutekano wazo.
U Rwanda rushimangira ikibazo cy’imitwe yitwaje intwaro irwanya ubutegetsi bwarwo ikorera mu burasirazuba bwa Congo, mu gihe RDC ishimangira ubusugire bw’ubutaka bwayo no guhagarika ibikorwa byose ibona ko bibuhungabanya.
Ibi bituma kubaka icyizere biba ingenzi cyane. Amasezerano y’amahoro arambye asaba ko impande zirebwa n’amakimbirane zishobora kuganira ku mpungenge zazo, zigashyiraho uburyo bwo kuzikemura kandi zikagira ubushake bwo kubahiriza ibyo ziyemeje.
Ni izihe nzira zishoboka mu gihe kiri imbere?
Hari ibyerekezo bitandukanye bishobora gukurikira ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’Amasezerano ya Washington na Doha.
Icyerekezo cya mbere ni uko impande zirebwa n’amasezerano zakomeza kubahiriza ibyo ziyemeje, imirwano ikagabanuka, hakubakwa icyizere kandi hagashyirwaho uburyo burambye bwo gukemura ibibazo by’umutekano.
Ibyo byafasha mu kugarura ituze no gufungura inzira y’imikoranire mu bukungu.
Icyerekezo cya kabiri ni mu gihe ibiganiro bikomeza, ariko ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’amasezerano rikagenda gahoro kubera kutumvikana ku nshingano za buri ruhande. Ibi bishobora gutuma dipolomasi ikomeza kubaho, ariko abaturage ntibahite babona impinduka zigaragara mu mutekano wabo.
Icyerekezo cya gatatu ni uko kutizerana kwiyongera, ibikorwa bya gisirikare bikongera ubukana, bityo inzira y’amahoro igahura n’imbogamizi zikomeye. Ibi bishobora kugira ingaruka ku mutekano w’akarere kose, cyane cyane mu gihe amakimbirane yakomeza gukurura izindi mpande zo mu karere.
Ibi si ubuhanuzi bw’ibizaba, ahubwo ni uburyo bwo gusuzuma ingaruka zishobora guterwa n’uko amasezerano azashyirwa mu bikorwa.
Umwanzuro: Amahoro ntapimirwa ku masezerano yasinywe gusa
Amagambo ya Donald Trump, Judith Suminwa na Massad Boulos agaragaza uburyo butandukanye bwo gusobanura intambwe imaze guterwa mu gukemura amakimbirane yo muri RDC.
Trump yibanda ku ruhare rw’ubuyobozi bwe mu guhagarika intambara, Suminwa agashyira imbere amahoro abaturage bakeneye, mu gihe Boulos agaragaza ko inzira yo kugera kuri ayo mahoro ikiri ndende.
Ibi byerekana ko intsinzi ya dipolomasi itagomba gupimirwa gusa ku masezerano yasinywe, ahubwo ko igomba no gupimirwa ku bushobozi bwo kuyashyira mu bikorwa, kugabanya imirwano, gukemura ibibazo by’umutekano no kugarura icyizere hagati y’impande zirebwa n’amakimbirane.
Mu mboni za geopolitiki, ikibazo cya RDC kirenze kuba ikibazo cy’intambara hagati y’impande zihanganye. Ni ikibazo gifitanye isano n’inyungu z’ibihugu, ubusugire bw’igihugu, umutekano w’akarere n’imbaraga z’abahuza mpuzamahanga.
Amasezerano ya Washington ashobora kuba intambwe ikomeye mu nzira y’amahoro, ariko agaciro kayo ka nyuma kazagaragarira mu mahoro azagerwaho, umutekano uzagaruka n’ubuzima bw’abaturage buzahinduka.
Kugeza ubwo ibyo bizagerwaho, ikibazo cya Congo kizakomeza kwibutsa amahanga ko gusinyana amasezerano bishobora kurangiza icyiciro kimwe cy’intambara, ariko kubaka amahoro arambye bigasaba ubushake bwa politiki, icyizere n’ibikorwa bifatika.